Research and Insight
Where are all the teenagers going? Instagram and Snapchat it would seem …
A recent Pew Internet study, was followed by aFacebook announcement, that teenagers have largely lost interest in their network. Those of us in the business have been observing this trend for some time. And for brands, this could be a problem. Just as they are starting to see some ROI from Facebook ads or promoted Tweets, this hard-to-reach audience has left the building.
Of course, this is nothing new, and if you understand teenage behaviour, it should come as no surprise. Like most users, teenagers are driven by need, and not technology. As a teenager you want to communicate (not with your parents of course) and find your place amongst your peers. That communication has always been done in school break-time, or by passing notes in class. As mobile phones took off, SMS became the communication tool, and MSN online (fast and almost free). Then it switched to BBM. For a short while it was Facebook and then Twitter. And now, it’s Instagram and Snapchat. The latter is seeing 350m photos uploaded per day, which is equal to that of Facebook.
In many ways, these Instagram and Snapchat are perfect for teenage users. The key drivers are cost, speed and where their peers are. Teenagers aren’t looking to write long prose, whatever they do needs to be done as cheaply as possible and they will tend to drift to the channels that don’t include their parents (and they have no channel loyalty). Instagram and Snapchat also come with the added bonus of pictures. For many, a picture expresses far more than a few words. For some observers though, perhaps there is a little too much expressing. Whilst Instagram is more public, Snapchat has been accused of being a place where teenagers are ‘sexting’ each other. We have no evidence if this is true or not, but it is important to keep in mind that whenever younger people adopt a new comms channel, there is always some kind of moral backlash. BBM was blamed for triggering the UK riots in 2011. Facebook was a corrupting influence, SMS was seen as ruining our language. Whatever the choice, the medium will usually be blamed. The reality is that it is purely a communication channel and they are essentially neutral – they can either be a force for good or bad. It depends on who/how it is used.
Perhaps the best way to understand the teenage engagement with Snapchat is this article by Rory Murdock. Whilst adults view photographs as permanent, or even nostalgic records, teenagers think of most photos as temporary, ethereal and worthless. Think of Snapchat like the notes passed around at school. Short comments that are instantly disposable.
One thing is certain about all this. The teenage channels are constantly changing. Don’t expect Snapchat or Instagram to dominate a few years from now and advertisers will probably still be chasing their audience. But largely speaking the behaviour stays the same, but the channel in which it’s done will change.
Predicting the future is never easy, but I gave it a go at a TEDxUCL talk in the spring …
The future is …
By 2045 we will have reached the point of singularity when the devices that are now smartphones will become the size of a grain of sand and 1 billion times more powerful. At that point the computers become sentient and run the world in a Matrix style.
So what happens between now and then? Read the synopsis below, or you can simply watch the video!
Well the first problem is that largely speaking, consumers just don’t care about brands that much. Pointless apps, or social media campaigns fail to ‘engage’ the audiences. The solution is around service. Brands should do what they do, and use channels such as mobile to simply do it better. Some brands understand this. Look at someone like Gatwick Airport who use Twitter as a service channel. They encourage their visitors to Tweet any problems and a small team sets about putting it right. Similarly car companies such as Mercedes are using QR codes in a useful way, by embedding them in cars to help emergency services know how to get access quickly in case of an accident. Or an augmented reality app that shows you how to change car parts.
When it comes to the future of smartphones themselves then we’ve pretty much reached the conclusion. They’ll become faster, brighter etc, but the functions that we have will remain large the same. People were surprised when Apple launched the 5S and 5C that there was nothing radically different. But that’s not the point. The radical change was the introduction of the device itself. From then on, changes are simply incremental. So the next generation are the ‘connecteds and wearables’. Google Glass is seen as a major innovation. It probably won’t be the device that everyone adopts, but it is a good indication of where things are going. However, there are many issues particularly around privacy. Where is the place for brand engagement.
A good brand example of a connected device is the Nike Fuel wristband. Although millions of $s were spent on its development, innovation is not about money, or spending, it’s about ideas. There are many good examples, such as Red Tomato Pizza’s fridge magnet. Simply press the button and it connects to your phone and orders your favourite pizza. A simple idea, well executed. Even more interesting are developments in the world of health. In Kenya they have been using it to track the spread of malaria, for example. Or in Switzerland they have hooked sensors up to the brains of sheep. When a wolf is in the area, it can sense their distress and send a text to the farmer. A simple, effective use of mobile.
I’ve been banging on for some time about how APIs are the future for brand apps. The idea is simple. If brands created APIs for their activities, other people would take that information and create far better apps (and at no cost to the business). Strangely, it’s something that government bodies, such as Transport for London seem to understand. Two of the best apps currently, are API-based, combining open data with a great user experience:
It seems like everyone in London is using this app, and no one has a bad word to say about it. Citymapper has so many functions, in a simple UX, they are impossible to list here. Even as a life-long Londoner, Citymapper has suggeseted transport routes that I have never considered (and often faster ones). The app achieves its goal through accessing a number of APIs from TfL as well as Foursquare data and delivered via their own algorithm. It’s a great example of how open data can be used to deliver an excellent user experience.
Although it hasn’t achieved the success of Citymapper, Whisk is another example of a great, frictionless experience. After selecting a recipe, and the number of diners, it lists the price of the ingredients across a range of supermarkets. They use APIs from Tesco, Ocado, Waitrose and Asda. You then select which you want to buy, and the supermarket. The best part is that the app allows you to add these items directly to the shopping basket of your chosen supermarket’s app.
Given these examples, why doesn’t every brand create an API for their data and simply open it up to developers? The results will be a far better experience than they could ever create (not to mention many more users).
A roundup of the tablet landscape
In early 2011, Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook announced at Goldman Sachs that tablets will overtake PC sales by the end of 2012.
We know from Tim Cook’s statement that 55 million iPads had been sold in the 18 months since Apple’s was launched. That makes the iPad more successful in terms of sales rate than the iPhone (3 years to 55 million) and much more successful that the iPod. The iPad currently dominates the market, however, there has been strong growth in Android-type devices. Tablet sales rocketed in the third quarter of 2012 (according to end of 2012 figures from IDC), and Samsung and Amazon saw significant sales increases. According to analyst house IDC more than 27.8 million tablets were shipped in the third quarter of 2012 – up 6.7 percent on the previous quarter – but during that time Apple saw its market share cut to 50.4 percent, compared to 65.5 percent in the previous quarter.
According to Comscore data from the end of 2011, tablets skew more towards men, however as tablet devices have grown, the demographic has switched, and are now used by more women than men in the US:
|Demographic Profile: Tablet* and Smartphone Audience
3 month avg. ending Apr. 2012
Total U.S. Tablet Owners and Smartphone Subscribers, Age 13+
Source: comScore TabLens and comScore MobiLens
|% Share of Tablet Audience||% Share of Smartphone Audience||Index of Tablet to Smartphone Audience**|
|$25k to <$50k||17.7%||19.5%||91|
|$50k to <$75k||18.9%||19.5%||97|
|$75k to <$100k||18.3%||15.9%||115|
As expected, the earlier adopters tend to be of higher income, but are more likely to choose a tablet over a smartphone. As with smartphones, cheaper devices and notebook replacements (see below) will create demand from lower income groups.
For many, a tablet is not a PC replacement, but an additional (yet another) device, that is hardly surprising. Comscore tell us that in Europe 34% of iPad users also own an iPhone.
According to Flurry in Sept 2012, tablet users tend to be older than those with smartphones.
Where are they used?
The most preferred place to use a tablet is in the living room according to data from Adweek
It confirms the trend that they are largely a domestic device rather than a mobile one. The use in the living room also demonstrates the shared nature of tablets. Data from YouGov, stated that in the UK there is 8% tablet ownership, but significantly it represented 20% of UK households in June 2012 (http://econsultancy.com/uk/blog/10240-tablet-stats-ipad-still-rules-but-the-competition-is-catching-up).
Tablet Devices to overtake Notebook Sales
As expected, tablet devices are rapidly replacing notebook sales, with a prediction from NPD Display Search (Dec 2012) that they will overtake notebook sales this year:
Tablet Users do More
In the US, Comscore tell us that nearly 98% of tablet data usage was from the iPad at the start of 2011. As with the iPhone, it would seem that users do more of everything than other devices. They are also beginning to overtake desktop usage. Comscore’s November 2011 figures show that tablets represent 30% of non-desktop traffic. That is considerably higher than the percentage of ownership of ownership.
When it comes to purchasing, tablets also perform well. A study by Adobe Research over the 2011 US holiday period found that tablet users spend 54% longer on sites than mobile users, and purchase over 20% more than desktop visitors. The following chart shows a comparison using average retail order value.
The high sale value is partly down to the ease of use of the devices. In an IAB study in December 2011, nearly half of respondents said they used their tablet because it was ‘the easiest to pick up’ and 37% said that it offered the easiest user interface. But it is also worth considering that as tablets skew towards a higher income bracket, users are more likely to purchase.
Forecasts from eMarketer show that tablet devices show a greater growth when it comes to purchasing, with tablets representing nearly 10% of all US retail sales by the end of 2013:
Hardly surprisingly, the focus on tablet content is much more towards home/family than on smartphones (according to Comscore data):
Last Thing at Night (and First Thing In the Morning)
Data from Nielsen in 2011 found that 70% of tablet owners use it in front of the TV. Clearly, the iPad is the device for two screening. Interestingly though, the iPad is used in bed by nearly 60% of owners and appears to be replacing the book at bedtime. That figure is similar to smartphone use, but with tablets the spike at the end of the day is even more pronounced. Both the IAB study and data from Comscore in the US show that later in the evening, tablets are used more than mobile or television. On weekends there tends to be an earlier peak:
Advertising and Media
IgnitionOne, revealed that year-over-year (YoY) paid search spending growth for tablets doubled that of smart phones in the fourth quarter of 2012 as mobile devices as a whole grew to 18% of search budgets in the U.S
Useful read from Comscore: Connected Europe, How Tablets and Mobile are shifting media consumption (Jan 2012)
An App-based World
The Sept 2012 Flurry report found that tablet users were more likely to download apps than those with smartphones, and used the devices for playing games:
Tablet Users Watch More!
According to Comscore in Sept 2012, tablet users are three times more likely to watch video on their device than smartphone users. Over half of US users (53%) ever watch a video during a month, with nearly 10% doing so every day:
|Video/TV Viewing on Device for Tablet* and Smartphone Audience
3 month avg. ending Apr. 2012
Total U.S. Tablet Owners and Smartphone Subscribers, Age 13+
Source: comScore TabLens and comScore MobiLens
|Share of Audience that Watched Video/TV on Device|
|% of Tablet Audience||% of Smartphone Audience|
|Ever in month||53.0%||20.0%|
|Once to three times throughout the month||24.6%||10.3%|
|At least once each week||18.9%||6.7%|
|Almost every day||9.5%||2.9%|
Inevitably, video viewing is much higher on tablets than mobile. As a total percentage of online video views, tablet (3.21%) surpassed mobile (2.21%).
Ooyala’s “Global Video Index” report (Nov 2012) suggested that 71% of tablet users watch long-form content (30-60 mins), whereas on mobile it is much more focussed on short-form ‘snacking’ behaviour. The report also showed that tablet viewers were far more likely to complete a video view longer than 10 mins than any other device: for videos longer than 10 minutes was 39.2%, compared to 35.3% for CTV & GC, 26.8% for desktops, and 22.3% for mobile phones.
For shorter videos, tablets were still saw more completions than mobile, but were surpassed by connected TVs.
The Preferred Device for Reading
Whilst it is no surprise that tablets are preferred over mobile for reading, they are also more popular than dedicated e-readers (Online Publishers Association, June 2012). That naturally includes news and magazine content. Data from the MPA, November 2011, found that 45% of tablet owners spend 1-3 hours per week reading magazines. This makes the tablet the most-used digital device for reading:
Data which compared 2010 and 2011, reported by eConsultancy, showed that conversion rates for tablets were higher than mobile – 2.3% compared to 5.4% and 5% for desktops and tablets respectively.
Tablets and Consumers
The research from Nielsen (Dec 2012, US) shows that shoppers will tend to use their mobile for
- finding stores, price comparison in-store, redeeming coupons
For tablets, though, consumers are more likely to:
- Research items, read reviews, purchase
Although two screening use is largely similar between smartphone and tablet, the Nielsen data (US, Dec 2012) suggests that tablet devices are more popular for two-screening in older audiences:
Whilst mobile technologies move quickly, its rise has been steady and incremental for well over a decade. There has not been, nor never will be a ‘year of mobile.’ So largely speaking, most trends in mobile have already started. If you’ve been reading the marketing and technology press then you will already have a good idea what will happen in 2013. But which trends are just fads and which will become a reality?
It feels like QR, Augmented Reality and NFC have been on mobile forever. Don’t expect to see any significant shifts. Consumers will still not see the point of scanning a QR code, with less than 20% of Europe’s smartphone owners doing so. AR will remain exciting and interesting, but with a few million users it will continue to be niche for brands. NFC is also struggling. The lack of a chip in the iPhone5 hasn’t helped adoption, and neither has the lack of terminals. The biggest hurdle is consumer perception of security. Sure, we are beginning to see NFC in credit cards, but it is all about perceptions, and payment providers have a lot of work to do to build trust.
Similarly mobile display advertising will only see an incremental rise. Although brands have been spending more in recent years, it still represents a very small portion of budgets (anyone remember iAd?), especially when compared to the time spent in mobile. Mary Meeker calls this ‘an opportunity’, but maybe brands don’t spend because it doesn’t deliver the numbers. Facebook and Google share prices have suffered as a result. But above all, mobile advertising doesn’t deliver a good experience on mobile. In the UK the operators announced a joint project called Weve, so expect to hear plenty more about it in 2013. Just don’t expect any significant shift in behavior.
The Upwardly Mobile
Mobile Payments have been on the rise for the last few years. It is clear that these payments will not come through any single channel, such as NFC. Instead it will be a matter of consumers using payment through a range of apps, brand apps and mobile sites. Apple’s Passbook shows potential, but the two big players in this space are likely to be PayPal and Square, both of whom are creating secure, frictionless experiences.
China, obviously has seen significant growth for the last two decades, and it has become the largest consumer market, the largest smartphone market and at the end of 2012, mobile internet access was greater than desktop. In 2013 China will be the place not just of ‘uptake’ but a place of real innovation and opportunities for brands. Witness Lei Jun, who is head of technology firm Xiaomi, described as the ‘Chinese Steve Jobs’
Virtual retail and the rise of the ‘unstore’. Last year I predicted that virtual stores such as Tesco Homeplus in Korea would become more widespread. In 2012 we saw various offerings from PayPal, Tesco F&F and many more. However these were largely PR stunts. However in 2013 we are likely to see more permanent offerings, spurred on by the announcement that Chinese retailer Yihaodian will open 1000 such stores.
Data and especially ‘Big Data’ were the catch phrases of 2012. As someone put it to me ‘it’s just data’. The now ubiquitous nature of smartphones means that data is being generated constantly. Combine this with Open Data and APIs and all kinds of things become possible. Twitter has become a major source of such data, predicting the US presidential result or spotting trends five hours ahead. In Kenya they are using it to track and manage malaria. Brands can also use this data to bring a better understanding of their customers and deliver a better service.
Data Privacy – the flip side of big and open data is that as consumers we will see more brand invasion of our privacy. Witness the numerous privacy issues around Facebook. A couple of slightly scary trends are based on facial recognition; Scene Tap and Facedeals. Technologically interesting, it remains to be seen if they are acceptable to consumers.
Connected Devices – the smartphone may have reached its obvious conclusion. Largely speaking it does everything we need. There will be improvements in screen and interface technology in 2013, such as better voice control, gesture control and variable texture or haptic screens. The big change, however, will be in connected devices. Google Glass project has been widely hailed as the future. Patents from Microsoft and Apple demonstrate that the space is hotting up. However, that kind of wearable technology is likely to be limited; both looks and practical issues from potential eyesight damage will not see AR glasses become universal. The interesting trend is in devices such as Nike Fuel. For brands, it will mean bringing more service into the product space. However, simple, cheap devices will also become more prevalent. Witness the Red Tomato Pizza fridge magnet. A simple, low-cost approach to brand engagement.
Want more trends? Try these: http://www.slideshare.net/fjordnet/fjord-trends-2013 and http://www.slideshare.net/NextGenerationMedia/12-trends-for-2012
When it comes to technology, predicting the future is never easy. Whilst we know what many technologists are working on, ultimately the future is led by user adoption and the channels that it creates. As much as anything else, our vision is more a statement of where we are, at a given time and what our desires for the future. Ahead of my presentation on the future, at The Drum’s Four Minute Warning event, here are some past visions of the future. Very few of these have come to pass.
A fascinating view came from 19th Century French artists, who thought we would have flying firemen and play underwater croquet: http://news.yahoo.com/photos/historic-visions-of-the-future-slideshow/postcards-from-the-future-photo-1347289263.html
In the 1920s the future was an urban one, as seen (largely) by Fritz Lang:
The Jetsons, of course, was a future vision based on the optimism and rapid development of consumer technology in the 1950s and 60s:
Whilst The Jetsons was concerned with space, Japanese Manga Cartoon, Marine Boy saw the future underwater (and we would breathe by chewing Oxygum):
Still in the 50s, it was all about space travel and robots for Disney:
Whilst the 1960s predicted the change that the internet would bring, somehow they failed to see the changing role of women, in this somewhat unenlighted piece:
BBC was less fantastical, but pretty accurate in their predictions, apart from being able choosing the sex and IQ of your child:
Apple’s view of the future is much more about their own ambitions, but pretty accurate as a result:
1990s Kids showing more insight than most commentators:
Apple’s Passbook which had a soft launch alongside iOS6, seems to have been met with a lukewarm reception by those in mobile. Hoping for NFC in the iPhone5, people were naturally disappointed that Apple delivered something lacking in originality. However, that might be its strength. A combination of user familiarity, native integration, alerts to the front of the screen and ease of set up for brands could make Passbook something of a hit.
First of all, Passes are easy to set up via their API, but also through a number of interfaces. They can be highly targeted and set to pop-up on screen at a specific time or a specific location. Imagine if Foursquare, for example could push an offer to the front screen whenever you passed a venue? Passbook can do exactly that. Whilst, offers, loyalty and ticketing are an obvious use, there is a massive opportunity for brands to use Passbook to offer a better service or utilities. It’s already being done for accommodation information, medication alerts or credit card statements. So perhaps it’s time for brands to get imaginative and find some new and interesting uses for Passbook Passes.
Brand Emotivity has written a white paper on the opportunities of Passbook and how to implement it, which is below, or can be downloaded here.
I previously blogged how Eventbrite and Auchan, the French supermarket are making good use of the system. Other brands who have been successful with Passbook is Starbucks (probably the ‘best in class’), Sephora, Air BnB, Medpass and Billpass.
See the slideshare below (or ) to undertand the opportunities, see how these brands have used Passbook and how to create your own passes.